Looking at Betfair right now, the odds for Brexit are 3.2 – which represents a 31% chance of victory.
I’m going to suggest the real odds are under 10%.
And, to back that up, I’m going point out lessons from the Scottish independence referendum, and show how the Vote Leave campaign is repeating many of the same mistakes.
The Obligatory Disclaimer
As much as I’m trying to be objective, I’m sure my own preferences will come through. So, I might as well lay them on the table and say I voted for Scottish independence and will probably vote to leave the EU.
With that out of the way, let’s look back at the independence referendum…
Recapping the Scottish referendum
8 months before the referendum (January 2014), polls showed a 22% lead for the No campaign (61% – 39%). It should have been over.
But, by September, the gap was so small, David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg rushed to Edinburgh with a rashly cobbled-together bag of promises to bribe Scotland to stay in the Union.
So let’s look at what caused that swing towards independence, why it ultimately failed, and the lessons for the EU campaigns.
The No campaign’s mistakes
The biggest problem the No campaign had was (more…)